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Monday, November 5, 2012

Statistical odds say '"four more years."

Nate Silver, the egg head behind Money Ball and a millionaire from playing poker, has crunched numbers and says that there is a "greater than 80%" chance that Obama will be reelected, if his supporters turn out the vote. Ohio is the key, but there are scenarios where Nevada, Florida, Virginia and other states come into play. If Obama wins Ohio the odds of a second term jumps to "well over 95%." Silver, using only number analysis, feels that everything would have to go Romney in the electoral vote for him to win, a statistical improbability.He says it is not his politics, but history, math and data applied, just as you would in poker, baseball, investments and any form of risk analysis.

Silver says the popular vote will be close, but that Obama will come out ahead in that vote too.

He says the media, which accuses him of being 'liberal', is in the business of promoting a horse race, or even race, and always is for the come from behind candidate, this year represented by Mitt Romney.

CBS has the race 48% Obama., 47% Romney, essentially "neck and neck" for the popular vote, with several ways Romney can win, but many ways Obama can win in the electoral vote. 

Meanwhile Fox News and the Republican Party polls give Romney Ohio, Florid and Nevada for a end run on an electoral victory.

But are media polls non-bias? Liberal? 

Silver uses media polls but gives them less weight to Pew, Gallop and other non-patrician polling.

Silver says if he had to bet, he would need three or four to one odds to bet on Romney, where-as Obama is "better than an even bet."

Meanwhile President Obama has endorsements from conservative forces such a Republican former Secretary of  State and field commanding general in the first Gulf War, Collin Powell, conservative Mormon publications like the Salt Lake City Tribune, the AARP and other senior organizations. The welcoming open arms of the Republican mayor and governors in a time of disaster have President Obama looking very presidential and successful.

Big Budget Political Action Committees, with little or no accountability as to the sources of the funds, are spending heavily for both sides in Tuesdays election, with 80% of estimated nation spending on presidential, senatorial and congressional races being from and by PACS. Republican backing PACS represent 76% of all PAC spending.

Negative advertising and excessive dialer robo-calls could keep voters from the polls, giving Romney an advantage that polls may not reflect.

Republicans, veterans, seniors and men are statistically more likely to vote in historic elections.  
The conservative attorney who succeeded in getting the US Supreme Court to toss out 135 years of campaign reform with one decision, believes that such spending is democracy, since part of freedom of speech is your right to spend your money, or your corporate person's money, in any way you see fit. He sees no imbalance in political spending, chalking up all media as liberal and equating that to dollars per minute, as you would advertising. He also believes that "one man, one vote" (his exact words) still rules, because American Citizens can listen to both sides, tell lies from truth, and make up their minds fairly and evenly.

Despite 20 years of  Republican Presidency over the last 25 years, Republicans still claim that Democrats have an unfair advantage and that all Democrats are liberal.

And that the statistics are a liberal bias, which Silver says is simply not true. 

Numbers, he says, do not lie.

Of course there is between a ten and twenty percent chance we will see a President Romney sworn in on ac cold January day in Washington.

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