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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

The state of the election

Lastest national poll:

Obama        49%
Romney      42%
Undecided    7%

If this is true billions of dollars (hundreds of millions at this point) are being spent to influence fewer than one in ten Americans. Romney has the advantage by spending more than Obama, and with PAC's considered spending three times as much as Obama.

Political, sociological, psychological and social anthropological beliefs and tendencies of the two parties have never been more divided and polarized. Will big business and wealth "save" America or will it take a central government coupled with grass roots efforts, as was done to pull us out of the Great Depression? Which is ethical, moral and the right thing to do? Should we increase or cut taxes? Will cutting taxes stimulate the economy this time despite failure to do so in previous recessions? Is government too large and costly to allow for a recovery from the recession? Should the government e in everyone's lives? Who will fund education? Roads? Health care? Programs for the poor? Disability programs? Support for vets along after they return home? Retaining our military dominance in the world?

Views differ by party and, again, are diametrically opposed as at no other time in post 19th century America.

News media bias depends on who you are voting for.

The reality is that both positive and negative coverage of a challenger (Romney) from the party out of office will easily double that of the incumbent, as you enter into and for a short time after that party's national convention. There is a statistical advantage for an incumbent, however both Jimmy Carter (D) and George Bush Sr. (R) lost their re-election bids in modern times. Iran and the economy figured in both defeats. Today we have the same two factors, only multiplied, in effect.

Remember also that a national poll is not how presidential elections are determined. It's about the Electoral College and how states vote. At this time projections have Romney with an advantage, however there remain enough battleground states, including Nevada, to swing the election either way. The possibility of one man winning the popular vote and another winning the election is very real.

Historically white older voters go to the polls. If that holds true Romney will be the next President of the United States. Younger voters, minorities and lower and working class historically vote Democrat, so if they come out in large numbers, Obama remains president.

Of course these are generalities, and each person is an individual.

While most often Romney is seen surrounded by white suburbanites in their 40's and older. To counter this the Republican Convention will include speakers who are African American, Native American, Hispanic and Arabic to show a "large tent" for the party identified with affluence. Among the speakers are former Secretary or State Condolisa Rice, whose name is in the hat for Vice President but who says she wants to remain a college professor for now. Ron Paul supports are still vowing to make the convention interesting by exercising their rights to vote for Paul on the first ballot despite their states being pledged to Romney. There is an attempt to censor and keep this from happening. Also several states will have fewer voices and votes because of how they played games with the dates of the primaries and caucus schedule and ignored party official requests, guidelines and rules.

On the Democrat side, popular former president Bill Clinton will take the convention speaker slot usually reserved for the Vice President and his wife will be among many women, minorities and divergent viewpoints to address the big tent Democratic party convention.

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