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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

dis the Democrats



How are the Millennial Generation doing as voters? They are credited with helping to elect Barrak Obama, and then changing the chemistry in the Senate and in governor's races the other direction.

Remember the source... In the case of this morning's Las Vegas Review Journal, as the editors wrote the head "Young voters now dis democrats, poll finds" on a page one story. 

When you read the story you find that the Pew Trust found that registered voters 18 to 29 favored the Democratic Party 62% to GOP 30% in 2008, while a poll this past December shifted to 54% to 40%. 

First off, is this a "dis"?

Second, be aware the poll was of voters, not all young people.

Third, and most important, when you visit Pew you will find an error for the demographics breakdown of +/- 8.5% or 17% total. The difference shown is a shift away from democrats of 8%, within the error margin.

The pew trust report, not highlighted by the RJ and its headlines, indicated, "large numbers of young adults like the president, but are dissatisfied with the rate of progress in changing Washington and fixing health care". The story goes on to say that younger voters do not understand the time it takes to craft compromises and the depth or nature of the political motivations of politicians and political parties.

Deeper into the copy, far beyond what headline readers or those who scan story would end up reading, the report by Hope Yen of the Associated Press reads "neither party has a hold on voters ages 18 to 29. They tend to vote far less than other age groups...Analyst find the fast pace at which young people live their lives, and both parties should take note of their fickleness." 

Former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd feels "they haven't become Republicans, and they aren't solid Democrats. They’re just looking for leaders who are where they are and will deliver...both parties should be cognoscente of the volatility of that group."

In addition, in contrast to all other demographic groups, only "34 percent" supported sending more troops to the Middle East and over "50% were dissatisfied" with what they see is escalation of the war.

The AP summary of the report goes on to say those voters 18 to 29, or the Millennial Generation, represent one quarter of the electorate but vote less frequently, so they had a lower impact on election results. The demographic tends to be less religious, more racially diverse, increasingly liberal on social issues, favor gay rights and contrary to the Tea Party or conservative movement, feel that government should do more to solve problems.

The overall Pew study covers only 2,020 adults reached by cell phone (considered more accurate as methodology for young adults) and landline between January 14 and 27.  The overall estimated error for all groups studied was plus or minus 2 % (4%) with the harder to reach 1 to 29 at 8.5% (17% range).


From 2/22/2010

4 comments:

Aurora Carlos - Com 101-4049(T/Thur 6-7:20) said...

In reading this article, I have to admit, I felt like a real idiot. I confess that I will often times take what is written as the "holy truth" and not question the facts behind the story or the motives. In re-reading this, it appears that they failed to mention the margin of error in order to sensationalize(spell that right??)their story. In other words,take it with a grain of salt.

Anonymous said...

It's a tad disheartening that young people vote so blindly. I have to admit that I used to be one of them. The shift from democratic to republican voting is a little scary. Perhaps when they realize they are not the 1%, that will change.

John Williams
COM 101 Sec 4049

Anonymous said...

I'd say this is a fair statement for most people in the demographic age range of 18-29.

"Former George W. Bush strategist Matthew Dowd feels "they haven't become Republicans, and they aren't solid Democrats. They’re just looking for leaders who are where they are and will deliver...both parties should be cognoscente of the volatility of that group." "

Realistically that's not such a bad thing. Being an elected official is still a job, if you don't deliver you should get replaced by those who will.

Conversely, who doesn't like to be around those who think alike or are where they "are" in life relatively speaking. It's fair to say that most people gravitate this way, not just that age group.

Ryan Clift
Com 101 - 4049

Anonymous said...

I wish my generation would take politics a little more serious. What is going on in our democracy is getting a bit out of hand. Most people just read the headlines and not what really goes on behind them.

I do wish that there was more change in our government, but I do not put all the blame on the President. Every time the president tries to pass a bill, the republicans just block it.

I just feel that if my generation would pay more attention and actually read into our governemnt, we would have a better democracy. Democracy will be handed to us soon. It is in our interest t keep it in shape for future generations too.

Alberto Sayson
Com 101
Henderson 4080